泰國房地產投資

曼谷舊公寓價格會上漲嗎??

WILL PRICES RISE IN BANGKOK’S OLD CONDOMINIUM BUILDINGS?

(本文作者為藍海地產海外部資深業務顧問劉翊弘撰寫)

對許多海外買家來說，曼谷公寓市場的一個最奇怪的特徵是中古公寓的價格成長幅度不若新成屋，甚至在某方面來說，價格根本不動如山。

在許多發達的西方市場，用地點來衡量一個地區的平方米價格是可行的，但顯然在曼谷這種情況並非如此。從曼谷的任何一個地區來看，新成屋價格與中古屋的開價仍然存在著相當大的差異。

不同於英國或澳洲，在泰國的實際銷售價格並沒有公開的數字統計，即使每一筆關於所有權轉移的資訊都是由土地廳所收集。雖然中古市場的價格並不完全能反映出真實的市場價格，但是指標性是一樣的。不過買家可以很輕易地上網搜尋仲介公司，例如世邦魏理仕所提供的價格，或是自行在Google搜尋如"待售公寓"再加上路名等即可得到相關資訊。

我們拿曼谷最受歡迎的地點之一，素坤逸路24巷來看，就能感受到明顯的差異。The Ville House l完工於1981年，是24巷裡最早落成的公寓，目前開價僅6萬泰銖/平米。巷子裡目前戶數最多的案子是The President Park(351戶)，完工於1994年，四棟建物目前平均開價也是6萬泰銖/平米。最新的建案，是在2013年第四季發表的Park24，現在每平米開價平均約為21萬泰銖。

當然在室內面積上我們無法以此做為比較，原因是老建案通常每戶擁有較大的面積。例如以The President Park的三房來看，面積有223&264平米，相對來說Park24最大的兩房樓中樓戶型，只有106平米。

單就面積來說，是無法解釋何以形成如此大的價格差距。我們只能說，大部分的本土買家，比較傾向於購買新成屋勝過舊公寓。

那又是什麼原因讓老建築如此具有魅力？在英國，歲月似乎無損建築本身的價值，一些屋齡超過500年的建築，在價格上更勝過新成屋許多。

泰國在1979年立法頒布他們的最早期的公寓大廈法(B.E. 2522)，明定人民能以個人身分持有不動產永久產權。而全泰國第一棟公寓大樓叫做Siam Penthouse，1981年完工，坐落於素坤逸路18巷。

第一波的公寓熱潮，從1989年之後開始，在1997年亞洲金融危達到高峰。這段期間在曼谷市中心，有超過29,000戶公寓完工釋出。然而這時期許多建案是由不具經驗的建商所蓋，而買家多是投機者，承包商則是時常超出能力及監督範圍。

這時期許多的房子在格局及設施上都未經過良好的設計。有些建案的入口大廳設計不良，有時候是位於一樓停車場的中央，公共走廊也裝潢的不美觀，或是不符坪效的內格局。

要改進這些缺失顯得非常困難。住戶們與部分利益團體與日劇爭的衝突，也是在更新公設時必須面臨的挑戰。

在許多案例裡，如果要得到全體住戶的同意募資來維護公共設施，似乎是不可行的。即便在少數成功的案例裡，成功取得住戶的同意，募得了資金，甚至也成功改善公共設施，但是房價仍然跟不上同地區的新建案。

第二波公寓熱潮始於2002年，相較於前一波熱潮所推出的建案，公寓的品質更好了。

位於無線路(Witthayu rd.)上的Athenee Residence(2008年完工)，以及奇隆路(Chid Lom rd.)上的The Park Chid Lom(2007年完工)紛紛創下20萬泰銖/平米的單價，是當初2004年開賣價10萬泰銖/平米的兩倍以上。跟現在比較起來，差不多大小平米數、類似公設的建案，價格還是跟不上這附近的預售案。舉個例子，2015年第一季發表的Nimit Langsuan(跟Ritz同個建商)，開賣價格就高達30萬泰銖／平米。

1997年之前完工的案子，價格低的原因，可歸咎於糟糕的設計以及缺乏維護，而2002年之後完工的建案，之所以沒有像預售屋一樣的價格漲幅，就單純只能歸咎於屋齡了，看來買家還是對於新建案情有獨鍾。

要弭補新成屋與中古屋價格差距，有以下幾個方式：

1. 市中心可釋出的空地稀少

其中一項論點就是，由於土地變少，使得新建案再也無法在市中心找到適合的土地新建，舊有的公寓就有被翻新的機會。然而就算經過2002年的公寓熱潮後(短暫的被金融危機所干擾)，主要地區仍然有很多未開發的基地，距離市中心土地被消化完，看來還是有一段路要走。

從歷史上來看曼谷，只要市區內的土地出現短缺，市中心就會跟著轉移至他處。自從1945年以來，市中心，這裡定義的市中心指的是商業最活耀的區域，不論是辦公室、零售商場或是飯店，1960年代已經從耀華力路(Yaowarat)、中國城，轉移到Si Phraya區、蘇羅旺路和席隆路一代，1970年代開始，過去這20年再轉移至沙吞路、倫波尼公園、菲隆奇到素坤逸路一代。

曼谷市中心會再次轉移嗎？我們認為不會，原因是大眾運輸系統已為這城市扎下了根。BTS捷運線在1999年完工，而MRT則是在2004年完工。市中心將會沿著捷運線蔓延，就像現在的拉差達路(Ratchadapisek)，而新的市鎮也跟著興起，但正市中心聚集了最好的辦公大樓、最棒的購物中心、最好的飯店，當然還有最好的住宅，其重要性依然不變。

在可開發的土地日漸匱乏的情況下，對於市中心的老建築來說是個好消息。

2. 逐漸攀升的土地價格 VS 既有大樓的價值

在某些城市裡，具備開發價值的空地，其價格已經高於既有建案的土地。因此如果住戶共同協商後，將土地產權統一賣給開發商做都更，如此一來，整個面積平均下來的單價反而會比住戶單獨賣給開發商的還要高。

這會發生在曼谷嗎？

土地的價格與建設的成本逐漸失衡當中。曼谷市中心第一次發生土地價格在整個可售面積所佔的開發成本裏頭，已經高於建築成本了。部分案例也顯示，土地占總開發的成本，已經從25%提高到60%了。

如果一個中古屋的賣價是5萬泰銖/平米，那麼回推整棟大樓(可銷售單位)每平方米的價值是25萬，或是100萬泰銖平方窪。這意味著開發商其實可以把整棟大樓買下拆掉重建，這麼作所花費的成本，甚至低於買下一塊相同地區的空地。部分區域看起來已經接近，但還不到能做如此操作的程度。

CBRE期盼土地的價格能夠持續地攀升，我們相信未來這些老舊建築拆掉並且順利開發、利用的話，他的價值將會更高。

根據泰國的公寓大廈法，實行都更必須要經過全體住戶100%的同意。其他的國家例如新加坡，10年以上的老公寓，只需要求80%的住戶同意，即可實施。在泰國，我們認為要全體住戶以相似的每平方米單價、相同的時間、賣給同一個人(建商)，是極不可能的。

我們必須經歷一段時間大幅度的土地價格上升，法令的修改，或是降低住戶同意的比例，才能創造一個讓所有住戶都能接受的售價，進而成功執行都更計畫。

這意味著投機買家很難藉著購買中古屋來期待建商買回進行都更。

3. 租金上漲 推升房價漲幅

另一個推升舊公寓價格的因素是住宅的租屋市場。 在曼谷，有超過95%的外籍租客，租金行情超過一個月2,000泰銖。由於大部分的外籍人士來到泰國工作有一定的工作年限，因此他們選擇租屋多於買屋。

好消息是，外籍租客的數量持續增加。現在在曼谷約有77,600位持有工作證的外籍人士。這還不包含住在曼谷，卻在曼谷以外的工業區工作的外籍人士，這些工業區位在大城(Ayutthaya)、巴吞他尼府(Pathumthani)、北柳府(Chachoengsoa)以及春武里府(Chonburi)，因此在曼谷租屋的外籍人士事實上更多。這五年內，持有曼谷工作證的外籍人士在，成長了27％。

大多數的外籍人士想要居住在曼谷市中心幾個特定的區域，素坤逸路、中央倫波尼、沙吞區，而且許多都喜歡兩房或三房房型。過去兩年，CBRE所處理過的800個租案裏頭，有73%的租戶選擇兩房或三房。

目前曼谷市中心正在興建的獨棟公寓(單獨產權)相當稀少，再加上僅有的正在建設的8,250個兩房或更大的公寓房型(多產權)，在未來一房或更小的房型供給量，佔比將會高達71%。CBRE估計市中心的買家，約有40%是買來出租使用的投資客，因此，兩房以及三房的供給量將會相當有限。

雖然外籍人士的房屋補貼總額約20年沒有上漲了，但在兩房及三房的供給量穩定持平，而需求量逐漸升高的情況下，合理的推斷房屋補貼總額必須要上升，以應付需求大於供給的情形。

目前看起來，只有少數中古公寓能成功吸引到租戶。最主要還是因為舊大樓本身的外觀形象，和缺乏設計感的室內裝潢。許多屋主沒有重新翻修廚房和臥室內裝，仍然保留20多年前剛完工的樣貌。這些公寓自然無法吸引到租客，租金也不到該區域行情，甚至在某些情況下，連租客都找不到。

Supalai Place(完工於1993年)位於素坤逸路39巷，是少數能夠順利吸引到租客的中古公寓之一。每年平均租金報酬率有8.6%，相較於素坤逸路20巷一棟較新的Millennium Residence僅4.3%的年投報比起來高出許多。部分原因也是因為Supalai Place的價格從完工到現在，漲幅不多的關係。Supalai Place 2014年的平均單價為66,000泰銖/平米，而Millennium Residence則是154,000泰銖/平米。

若租金如我們預期的上升，將會是因為日漸增加的外籍商務人士，以及短缺的兩房及三房，租金投報也會跟著水漲船高。

如此一來像Supalai Place高投報卻低總價中古公寓，就有可能被投資客相中，經過重新翻修後出租。這樣舊公寓的需求以及價格就會持續攀升。
不過建案本身也必須在租客喜好的區域，具有足以吸引租客的公設、裝潢，當然也要有良好的管理以維持他的名聲。

結論：

CBRE預測曼谷的市中心將不會有大幅度的偏移，但持續沿著市中心周圍擴張是大有可能的。民眾喜歡居住在曼谷市中心，是因為許多捷運路線銜接不順，或還未擴張到整個大曼谷地區。我們不認為相關的土地規劃法(planning laws)會更鬆綁，使容積率超過10:1。因此持續攀升的土地價格以及建築成本將會進一步堆高市中心房價，而未來將會只有少數買家能夠負擔如此高額的房價。

CBRE相信潛在買家將會開始搜尋，不論是在設計或是公共設施都維持得不錯的老公寓，尤其每平米價格還比新成屋低個1/3。

要使中古屋能有持續增值的潛力，必須全體住戶同意挹注大量資金來改善公共設施，不論是改善建築外觀，例如大廳美化等，或是改善大樓的基礎設施，像是電梯、管線的更換、即將報廢的變壓器等。另一方面的，尤其需改善公設美化或是一些住戶無法同意的花費上面，否則外觀的持續損壞，只會導致大樓最後變得無法居住。

舊大樓受歡迎的程度，將會隨著與新成屋的價格差距而與日俱增，但是只有少數受歡迎的中古大樓，經過完善的修復後卻仍舊能以較低的價格在市場流通，慢慢克服泰國買家對中古屋的厭惡。

WILL PRICES RISE IN BANGKOK’S OLD CONDOMINIUM BUILDINGS?

MARKET SITUATION

One of the strangest features of the Bangkok condominium market for Western purchasers is that prices of older condominiums do not move upwards at the same rate as newly-launched projects; in some cases, they have not moved at all. 

In many developed Western markets it is possible to value a property per square metre by location but clearly in Bangkok this is not the case.A purchaser looking at any location in Bangkok will still see a huge difference in price per square metre for new off-plan sales compared to even the asking prices at older properties.

Unlike the UK or Australia, actual sale prices are not publicly available data in Thailand even though this information is collected by the Land Department when the transfer of title takes place.

Though asking prices for resale units do not always reflect real market prices, they are an indication of the same. Potential purchasers can easily see asking prices by looking online at the units being offered by major agents such as CBRE or using simple Google search terms such as “condominium for sale” followed by the name of the street.

If we take one of the most popular locations such as Sukhumvit Soi 24, we can see a huge range of prices. The oldest condominium on the street is Grand Ville House I, completed in 1981, where asking prices are THB 60,000 per square metre.

The development with the most number of units is The President Park (351 units), which was completed in 1994; its four towers have an asking price of THB 60,000 per square metre. The most recently launched project on the street is Park 24, launched in Q4 2013, where the current average asking price for units for sale by the developer is THB 210,000 per square metre.

We are not always comparing “apples to apples” in terms of unit sizes as many older buildings have larger unit sizes. For example, the three bedroom units in The President Park are 223 and 264 square metres whereas the largest standard units in Park 24 are duplex two bedrooms of 106 square metres.

Size alone cannot explain the huge price differences. Most Thai purchasers will simply say that a unit is old and they only wish to buy a new condominium.

What makes old buildings unattractive? Age does not seem to do any harm in the UK where some buildings are more than 500 years old and get a premium price compared to new buildings.

WHY HAVE PRICES NOT RISEN?

Thailand’s first condominium act was made law in 1979 (B.E. 2522), legally permitting freehold title deeds to be issued for individual units in buildings. The first condominium to be completed in Bangkok was Siam Penthouse on Sukhumvit Soi 8 in 1981.

The first big wave of condominium launches came in the years after 1989 up to the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. Over 29,000 condominium units were completed in downtown Bangkok during that period. Many were built by inexperienced developers, bought by inexperienced, mainly speculative purchasers, and constructed by contractors stretched on capacity and supervision.

Many of these buildings were not well designed, both in terms of layout and specification. Some had poor entrance lobbies, sometimes located in the centre of the ground floor car park, common corridors were badly decorated, and unit layout designs were inefficient.

Improving these buildings has been difficult. Communal decision making by condominium co-owners has proved challenging with many examples of disputes between groups of co-owners.

Getting agreement to raise money from all co-owners to spend on significantly upgrading common areas has, in many cases, not been possible. Even in the limited number of cases where co-owners have been able to reach agreement, funds raised and improvement work well executed, prices in these buildings have still not kept pace with prices for off-plan sales in a similar location.

A number of buildings completed in the second condominium cycle, which started in 2002, have fared better.

Prices at Athenee Residence on Witthayu road (completed in 2008) and The Park Chid lom on Chitlom road (completed in 2007) have in many cases doubled to over THB 200,000 per square metre from the average launch price of around THB 100,000 per square metre in 2004.

These prices are still below the achievable price for a similar sized project with a similar specification launched off-plan today in a similar location. For example, the initial asking price of Nimit Langsuan, launched off-plan in Q1 2015, was THB 300,000 per square metre. The low current price for projects completed before 1997 could be blamed on poor design, specification and maintenance but for projects completed since 2002 the reason for prices not growing as fast as new off-plan sale prices is simply age; buyers like new buildings.

Will price gaps between old and new buildings continue to grow? OR WILL THIS CHANGE?

There are a number of factors that could close the price gap between new and old buildings:

1. Land Availability in City Centre

One argument is that when no new buildings can be built in a location due to scarcity of suitable land then demand will focus on the value opportunity in older condominium developments. However, despite the building boom that began in 2002 (briefly interrupted by the global financial crisis), there are still underdeveloped plots in most prime locations and we are still quite a long way from running out of development sites in the city centre.

Historically in Bangkok, when there has been a shortage of development sites, the city centre has simply moved. Since 1945 the centre of Bangkok, as defined by the location with the most commercial activity in terms of office buildings, retail centres and hotels, has moved from Yaowarat and Chinatown to Si Phraya, Surawong and Silom in the 1960s and 1970s to Sathorn, Lumphini, Phloen Chit and Sukhumvit in the last twenty years.

Will Bangkok’s city centre move again?

We think not because the mass transit systems have anchored the centre. The BTS sky train system was completed in 1999 and the MRT underground train system was completed in 2004. The centre may expand along mass transit lines as it is doing now in Ratchadapisek and new subcentres will emerge but the centre will remain the same with the best office buildings, best shopping centres, best hotels and best residences.

This may be good news for city-centre older buildings as development sites have become more limited in the most popular locations.

2. Increasing Land Prices vs. Existing Building Value

In some cities, the land value alone as a potential redevelopment site has been worth more than the total value of the land and old structures. Therefore, co-owners of old buildings join together and agree to sell all the individually owned condominium units to a developer for redevelopment, with the total sum per square metre for the whole building being higher than the total value of units if they were sold on an individual basis to different buyers.

Will this happen in Bangkok?

The balance between land prices and construction costs is changing. For the first time in central Bangkok, land price as a percentage of the total development cost on a sellable square metre basis now exceeds the construction cost element. In some cases, land prices have increased from 25% to 60% of the total development costs.

If the selling price of an old condominium unit is THB 50,000 per square metre, the value of the whole building (all sellable units) would equate back to a land price of THB 250,000 per square metre or one million baht per square wah*. That means a developer could buy the whole building to demolish and the effective land price would be lower than some vacant sites in a similar location. In some areas, we are close, but not quite at that level.

CBRE expects land prices will continue to increase and so in the future the value of some buildings could be greater if they were demolished and the land was sold for redevelopment.

The Thai Condominium Act requires 100% agreement of all co-owners to dissolve a condominium. In some other countries such as Singapore, it requires 80% co-owners’ agreement and 80% of sellable area to dissolve a building that is more than 10 years old. In Thailand, we think it is highly unlikely that condominiums will be able to achieve 100% agreement from all co-owners to sell at a similar price per square metre, at the same time, to one buyer.

We must experience a further significant rise in land values and a change in the law, reducing the percentage of co-owners’ agreement needed, to create a situation where all the owners are ready to sell out and dissolve the condominium in order for the building to be demolished and redeveloped.

This means that we are unlikely to see purchasers speculatively buying units in old buildings in the hope that agreement can be reached to sell out to a developer.

3. Rising Rents Push Up Prices

Another factor that may push up prices of old condominium buildings is the residential rental market. More than 95% of tenants who rent residential properties in Bangkok with rents of more than THB 20,000 per month are expatriates. Most expatriates who come to work in Thailand prefer to rent a home for a limited number of years rather than purchase a property.

The good news is that the number of expatriates continues to rise. There are now 77,600 expatriates with work permits in Bangkok. This excludes the expatriates working outside of Bangkok on the industrial estates in Ayutthaya, Pathumthani, Chachoengsao and Chonburi while living in Bangkok, which means actual numbers are higher. The number of expatriates with Bangkok work permits has increased by 27% over the past five years.

The majority of expatriates want to live in a limited number of downtown areas - Sukhumvit, Lumphini, Sathorn - and many prefer to live in two or three-bedroom units. Over the last two years, 73% of CBRE’s 800 residential leasing deals were two-bedroom or larger units.

There are currently very few apartment buildings (single ownership buildings for rent) under construction and only 8,250 two-bedroom or larger condominiums (multi-ownership buildings) are under construction in the downtown area; 71% of the new condominium supply will be one-bedroom or smaller. CBRE estimates that 40% of downtown condominium units have been bought by buy-to-rent investors.

Therefore, the supply of two and three-bedroom units will remain limited.

Although the lump sum housing allowances for expatriates have not risen for about twenty years, demand for two and three-bedroom units is rising while the supply is relatively stable so there is a reasonable possibility that lump sum housing allowances will have to increase because demand exceeds supply.

Currently, there are only some older condominiums that can successfully attract tenants. The main reason for this is the overall image of the buildings and the poor state of decoration of the units’ interiors. Many owners have not significantly renovated the interior of the units which have the same kitchens and bathrooms as they did when they were originally completed twenty years ago. These units are simply not attractive and achievable rents have fallen or in some cases the units are unlettable because of their condition.

Supalai Place (completed in 1993) in Sukhumvit Soi 39 is one of the few older buildings that attracts tenants. It has an average rental yield of 8.6% compared to 4.3% in newer buildings such as Millennium Residence in Sukhumvit Soi 20. This is partly due to the fact that sale prices in Supalai Place have moved very little since its completion. The average asking price in 2014 is around THB 66,000 per square metre compared to THB 154,000 per square metre in Millennium Residence.